My Prediction

[mkt7@mac.com]

H.264 Compression is virtually lossless, I'd say in terms, of quality loss it would be equivalent to that of CD and mp3 -- and the average punter will go for convenience over quality when the difference in quality is negligable to the average user --- sad but true, so even if Blu-Ray files are in the 25gb range, HD content in the 3-5 gb range, WILL be a reality, whether or not it is better is a different argument, but things are most certainly moving that way, it will be hard to deny that.

[mkt7@mac.com]

We have HDM discs in hand right now. Broadband capable of handling HD files of the size needed for comparable experience is years and years away - hell you can't even reliably get SD movies over broadband at the moment.

SD movies over broadband is easy as piss, I get mine off of iTunes as is... simple, easy, only problem is that it is not HD --

[ajm1503559545]

H.264 Compression is virtually lossless, I'd say in terms, of quality loss it would be equivalent to that of CD and mp3 -- and the average punter will go for convenience over quality when the difference in quality is negligable to the average user --- sad but true, so even if Blu-Ray files are in the 25gb range, HD content in the 3-5 gb range, WILL be a reality, whether or not it is better is a different argument, but things are most certainly moving that way, it will be hard to deny that.

As hard as you might find it I deny it emphatically. Perhaps from some digital downloads might be attractive but the numbers are infintesimally small compared to the number of people who'd rather grab a DVD from Target or Blockbuster. Not only does it need to be convenient it needs to be cheap and it needs to be simple and digital downloads cannot hope to compete in those areas. The infrastructure isn't there and there's no plans to put it there. Sort out the big problems first before taking on the easy ones.

[mkt7@mac.com]

I disagree -- the iTunes store, is not only MUCH more convenient and incredibly simple, but it is also cheap. You don't even have to leave your home, and the best thing about it, which is the bain of my existance re: DVD -- is Digital files don't get scratched!

People said the same re: music years ago. Now look how many files iTunes have sold via their store... no one ever thought they'd see that day right? These days you see more people listening to their iPod then their discman, you see more people plugging their iPod to their speakers rather than big cumbersome hifi system. It's an undeniable fact. iTunes is now the third largest music store in the US, and that includes music stores that sell CD's not just digital. I remember the argument people made about paying 16.95 and not having the disc in your hand, and all that jazz. now people are more than happy to pay for their mp3z (let's not get into an argument about illegal downloads etc) I'm talking about the AAC files off the iTunes stores.

Trends change, and people are becoming increasingly comfortable with a digitized life style. Ask someone what they'd prefer, sitting back in their couch, and using their remote to pick the movie they want to watch, and clicking to play, or getting up, going through their DVD collection, putting the DVD in, etc etc. It's a small difference but a vital one. Being able to swtich movies as you please, and go into one at any point is huge for the consumer. We just have to wait for the technology to mature further which it will do in the next 12 to 24 months.

Better yet, ask someone if they'd rather go to Blockbuster and browse through the store, or a video on demand 72 hour rental system? I think I know the answer.

You all make valid points, but you CAN NOT deny that this is where it is going, you can argue about the time frame, but it is a matter of WHEN not IF.

Best,

M

www.mkt7.com

Edited December 15, 2007 by mkt7@mac.com

[AndrewW]

which is the bain of my existance re: DVD -- is Digital files don't get scratched!

I have over 600 DVDs and 150 HD DVD/BDs, not one of them has ever had problems playing due to scratches ... I guess it just depends how one looks after their stuff.

I'd be more worried about a storage crash than an unreadable DVD/BD/HD DVD.

[aussieboy2010]

I have over 600 DVDs and 150 HD DVD/BDs, not one of them has ever had problems playing due to scratches ... I guess it just depends how one looks after their stuff.

I'd be more worried about a storage crash than an unreadable DVD/BD/HD DVD.

Quite an impressive DVD collection you got there. Wow.

I think it's fair to say that you would be in minority as far as how well you take care of your discs etc. The vast majority on here would be similar to you, however the general public are not as careful with their equipment.

[AndrewW]

last word (from me) on this, it really has been done to death on numerous other threads.

the fact is that just like question of "who is going to win the HD DVD vs BD war?" we can all argue back and forth about this until we are blue in the face, but it's not going to have any effect on the outcome.

sure, Video over IP might materialise in the near to mid term future, but thankfully I don't see the studios giving up the cash cow that is DVD and the HDM formats, so everyone can make their choices and live happy

[mkt7@mac.com]

Well if you think about it, if the studios play their cards right, then they could make more money off downloads, as no packaging and shipping is involve.d

[AndrewW]

Well if you think about it, if the studios play their cards right, then they could make more money off downloads, as no packaging and shipping is involve.d

agghh, I said final post .... but ....

The number of homes that have one or more DVD players would far exceed the number that have a broadband Internet connection.

[marcusd1503561159]

I can see the use for it I just can't see the infrastructure capable of handling it being around for many many years.

Back in 1994 an telecoms engineer told me it was imposible to get more than 36.6K down a copper phone line, then came 56K modems. Now in some areas it is possible to get 24Mbps, all on the same copper that has been in the ground for decades. The radical changes are taking place in the equipment in the exchange and the software algorithims transmitting the data. Engineers seem to find new ways to make the copper pipe bigger.

If you had said to me 5 years ago that I'd be getting 12Mbps broadband I would have been extremely skeptical. Copper will reach its limits eventually but if technoloies such as Fibre to the node and WiMax get implemented then bandwidth will not be an impediment to HD downloads.

I think the biggest impediment to adoption of HD or SD downloads will be simple demographics; until the majority of our ageing population is tech savvy and the process of downloading a movie is as simple as watching foxtel then it won't become mainstream.

[Bob51]

Back in 1994 an telecoms engineer told me it was imposible to get more than 36.6K down a copper phone line, then came 56K modems. Now in some areas it is possible to get 24Mbps, all on the same copper that has been in the ground for decades. The radical changes are taking place in the equipment in the exchange and the software algorithims transmitting the data. Engineers seem to find new ways to make the copper pipe bigger.

If you had said to me 5 years ago that I'd be getting 12Mbps broadband I would have been extremely skeptical. Copper will reach its limits eventually but if technoloies such as Fibre to the node and WiMax get implemented then bandwidth will not be an impediment to HD downloads.

I think the biggest impediment to adoption of HD or SD downloads will be simple demographics; until the majority of our ageing population is tech savvy and the process of downloading a movie is as simple as watching foxtel then it won't become mainstream.

Marcusd, I live in a suburb of Sydney. Our local exchange supports ADSL1 only and I struggle to get 256k effective download speed. So far this year my phone has died 4 times, each has taken days to be fixed and the faults have always been in the street or exchange. A technician admitted things are patched up rather than properly fixed.

When people talk of broadband speeds of so many megabits per second over this creaking infrastructure I laugh. Yes its technically possible, but will it happen for us all? - I reckon I'll die of old age first.

[mkt7@mac.com]

Die of old age first? What are you 98 or something?

[momaw]

Marcusd, I live in a suburb of Sydney. Our local exchange supports ADSL1 only and I struggle to get 256k effective download speed. So far this year my phone has died 4 times, each has taken days to be fixed and the faults have always been in the street or exchange. A technician admitted things are patched up rather than properly fixed.

When people talk of broadband speeds of so many megabits per second over this creaking infrastructure I laugh. Yes its technically possible, but will it happen for us all? - I reckon I'll die of old age first.

This is a major issue. Some here seem to think that because they have good broadband the same is true for everyone else. Well it isn't. Anyone who thinks downloadable content is a serious contender now and poses a threat to DVD and HD now, is living in la la land.

Even in countries where decent broadband is freely available the CD is still a strong contender. Now if downloadable content can't topple the cd at a few mb a song you really think it stands a chance in the new future with home video entertainment?

Music has delivery devices freely and easily available. Movies, not even close.

When the music industry has dumped physical media, then, and only then, should you start thinking that video entertainment will follow.

Downloadable content is fine for portable devices, for bus trips etc. It's a long way off a realistic lounge-room experience for the masses (myself included)

[mkt7@mac.com]

The music industry won't DUMP CD's once and for all, just as they didn't DUMP records, but Digital downloads will gain more prominence, and CD's relevance will diminish, the same will happen to Digital movie downloads vs Discs.

Even if you disagree it won't happen in the next 24 months, you have to agree it will happen shortly after. And if you don't think Digital Music downloads has been successful, you are living in la la land yourself, just go ask record companies like Warner, how business is going.

[momaw]

Even if you disagree it won't happen in the next 24 months, you have to agree it will happen shortly after. And if you don't think Digital Music downloads has been successful, you are living in la la land yourself, just go ask record companies like Warner, how business is going.

There's a big difference between success and replacement. You seem to have the two confused.

[Kazz]

There's a big difference between success and replacement. You seem to have the two confused.

As I've said before I like my movies sitting on my shelf in their multicoloured covers and not on a computer hard drive.

[Mining Man]

Is this like those astronomers that tell us we are all doomed, because one day the sun will go nova?

Okay, the time scale comparison is a little harsh. But to the layman, it's equally irrelevant.

[aussieboy2010]

This is a major issue. Some here seem to think that because they have good broadband the same is true for everyone else. Well it isn't. Anyone who thinks downloadable content is a serious contender now and poses a threat to DVD and HD now, is living in la la land.

Even in countries where decent broadband is freely available the CD is still a strong contender. Now if downloadable content can't topple the cd at a few mb a song you really think it stands a chance in the new future with home video entertainment?

Music has delivery devices freely and easily available. Movies, not even close.

When the music industry has dumped physical media, then, and only then, should you start thinking that video entertainment will follow.

Downloadable content is fine for portable devices, for bus trips etc. It's a long way off a realistic lounge-room experience for the masses (myself included)

I dont think anyone is saying that this revolution will happen NOW. The argument is that it will happen, and in the near future. It may not be completely mainstream for a long time however it will be a big enough player that it could force Toshiba and Sony to compromise on a single format.

[aussieboy2010]

I agree with MKT's stance on this. He seems to know what he's talkin about. Some peeps seem to be stuck in the now without seeing what the possibilities will be in the near future. I mean "i like having the colourful cases on the shelf", wtf??, im sorry but that doesn't really cut it as an argument. There is very little that suggests that the path this will take will not follow that of mp3's. We'll be at the beginning of that road very very soon, how long it takes for it to become mainstream? no idea, but i agree that will take a good while.

[mkt7@mac.com]

exactly -- the record industry completely ****ed up by ignoring the fact that the industry was headed in that direction, the film industry WILL learn from this, and move accordingly, but I am sure that the heads of the major studios are under no illusion that the future is not in Hard Media such as DVD/Bluray/HD DVD etc.

The record industry missed the boat and is paying for it dearly, the film industry won't do the same...

[aussieboy2010]

In the music industry's defense their industry was the first that really underwent this revolution. You can't really fault them too much for not taking electronic downloads seriously in it's early stages. It's just unfortunate for them that Steve Jobs did see what the potential was and subsequently profited enormously at the record companies expense. I don't see the Film studio's being as short sighted. Where it took the Music industry longer than it should to embrace the new technology you'll see the film industry accept it much earlier as the blue print is already in place.

[mkt7@mac.com]

I agree re: the film industry learning from the music industries mistake, but even if it was the first of its kind it shows an incredible lack of foresightedness on the part of the record companies ------ small file sized music files in reasonable quality, coupled with a global network that anyone can access, its only logical that it was going to equal trouble. The problem is the CEO's of these multibillion dollar companies, are from an era gone by, they didn't understand the threat this technology posed to their companies -- infact the head of Universal Music has gone on the record saying this. To paraphrase he said it was his job to find talent, not find ways to predict the future of technology -- he essentially said he barely used a computer -- that's the problem...

[cdn]

I agree with Bob51 I am only 67 but bet I will be dead before this all happens.

[aussieboy2010]

I agree re: the film industry learning from the music industries mistake, but even if it was the first of its kind it shows an incredible lack of foresightedness on the part of the record companies ------ small file sized music files in reasonable quality, coupled with a global network that anyone can access, its only logical that it was going to equal trouble. The problem is the CEO's of these multibillion dollar companies, are from an era gone by, they didn't understand the threat this technology posed to their companies -- infact the head of Universal Music has gone on the record saying this. To paraphrase he said it was his job to find talent, not find ways to predict the future of technology -- he essentially said he barely used a computer -- that's the problem...

True.

They prob thought that everyone would always want shiny new CD cases on their shelves....

[momaw]

Yet physical media for music is still the mainstay. You won't convince the average punter to ditch physical media in the next 5 years for electronic. Period.

How long have ebooks been around? longer than downloadable music yet the printing industry is unscathed.