basspundit Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/01/13/why-singapores-economy-is-heading-for-an-iceland-style-meltdown/5/
chanfm Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 Pretty good article. What should we do? Sell, sell, sell?
jeromelang Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 Pretty good article. What should we do? Sell, sell, sell? Yes, sell your CDs and LPs ;D
YANG Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 The Singapore bubble had already been around for more than 10yrs. Ever since the property price had gone up north. And with the government have a strong control on the land, transport, medical, and education sector... the rising price of living is the reason why newly weds will not want to have kids too soon. As days, months, years passes, when a couple manages to save a certain sum to raise a single kid, it's also time... when the men sperm quality drops, women eggs also drop... giving birth @ 30++ easy? Then the PAP people will keep deny that they had shot themselves on their foot, because they had phucked up the whole system, yet demanding for high pay... so that they can be "clean and honest"???? Let us all die together lah! To those who had bought your property and cars when the price was in the northern zone... I hope that you had paid off all your loans... seriously. Nobody can help you now... when the next financial crush strikes.
tsammyc Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 I think the author forgot to note that over 80% of the population live in HDB, so the coming crash will mainly wipe out the FT and foreigners. Unless of course, HDB dwellers have invested in private property. But then, they will still have a roof over their heads...
Guest james46 Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 How come hdb don't have bubble? I thought hdb prices also risen a lot and furthermore now almost all loans are taken privately with banks. So the bank won't foreclose hdb if buyer default?
basspundit Posted January 15, 2014 Author Posted January 15, 2014 At least with HDB loans its not determined by the sibor rate. So if there's a contraction the interest rate still remains the same, whereas on first sign of contraction private loans interest shoot up. But yes i suppose since BTO is now market price subsidised, a brand new BTO could be below water margin for awhile....:( How come hdb don't have bubble? I thought hdb prices also risen a lot and furthermore now almost all loans are taken privately with banks. So the bank won't foreclose hdb if buyer default?
tsammyc Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 How come hdb don't have bubble? I thought hdb prices also risen a lot and furthermore now almost all loans are taken privately with banks. So the bank won't foreclose hdb if buyer default? My point was that the author's stats were all on private housing and he didn't consider that most people live in HDB. I think it's more difficult for HDB to crash because Singaporeans live in their HDBs and they are generally not used for speculation like private properties. Hence because one lives in their HDB, it's unlikely that you will sell it off or fail to make your payments just because the market is going down. Otherwise, where would you live?
econav Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 How come hdb don't have bubble? I thought hdb prices also risen a lot and furthermore now almost all loans are taken privately with banks. So the bank won't foreclose hdb if buyer default? you cant just take a HDB and try to auction out lar.
tane0019 Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 Like that die lor. Property $$$ too high now - so if got buy expensive houses must start to sell ....... If got houses for rental income must also consider because in next few year yield will drop ................. Property developer & bank counter must also watch out & start to sell maybe within the next 1-2 years .......... So can start buying bond or not ??? (No the XYZ brother mini-bond type). Can't understand the article exactly, but will bond be a good investment if got extra cash ??? Now the ultimate question ...... HiFi eqpts & accessories (new and/or 2nd hand) got bubble or not ???
domho8 Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 Singapore not facing a credit bubble: central bank Singapore's central bank has refuted suggestions in a prestigious US magazine that the affluent city-state faces a risky credit bubble linked to high property prices. A statement issued late Tuesday by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said the property market is stabilising, household balance sheets are strong and the financial system is robust. "Singapore is not facing a credit bubble that puts the country or its banking system at any risk of crisis," the MAS said in response to an online article in Forbes magazine published this week. "Serious observers and investors are not in doubt about the country’s financial health." In the article, Forbes contributor Jesse Colombo warned Singapore was headed for an "Iceland-style meltdown", referring to the European nation that was brought close to bankruptcy when the financial crisis broke in 2008 and exposed the vast over-expansion of its banking system. Colombo warned low interest rates have led Singaporean households and companies to borrow more, fuelling a surge in property prices that may not be sustained. He said the risk is that the US could end its zero interest rate policy in the next few years, lifting borrowing costs around the world and bursting bubbles such as in Singapore, leaving investors with huge debts they cannot repay. "Singapore's bubble will most likely pop when bubbles in China and emerging markets pop and as global and interest rates continue to rise," Colombo wrote. "The growth of Singapore's credit bubble is inextricably linked to the country's soaring property bubble because Singaporeans are going into debt to invest in property or buy more expensive houses than they can afford, similar to Americans during the US housing bubble of 2003 to 2007." But the MAS said the government has "taken decisive steps to cool property demand and prevent excessive leverage". New housing loans continue to decline, with the number falling 35 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of last year, it said, adding that property prices are also falling. It also said that the average loan-to-value ratio of outstanding housing loans stands at a healthy 47 percent as of the December quarter. "Third, the financial system is robust," MAS said. It pointed to an assessment by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that found Singapore's financial system "would remain sound" even if there was a sharp hike in interest rates and slump in property prices. The IMF also said Singapore's banks are "resilient, with strong financial and capital positions". Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific chief economist at global consultancy IHS, told AFP regional central banks and financial regulators are aware of the risks and have taken measures to prevent credit bubbles from building up.
Heng Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 From the rebuttal statement, can see ppl will always be in denial until the bubble pops... ;D
dsj88 Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 Another negative report from Nomura Singapore's home prices could fall more than expected this year and unwinding cooling measures may not staunch any damage, Nomura said. Most analysts already expect the city-state's private home prices to decline, forecasting a peak-to-trough correction of around 10 to 15 percent through 2016, with a drop of around 5 percent this year, Min Chow Sai, an analyst at Nomura, said in a note. But he thinks 2014's pace of decline could surprise, potentially falling more than 10 percent by the end of the year. (Read more: Is Singapore set for an Icelandic-style crash?) Play Video A pullback in Singapore property prices? It seems Singapore's efforts to reign in property prices are finally paying off. So, is it time for the government to start relaxing its tightening policy? CNBC's Julia Wood reports. "A potential source of this negative surprise is a weaker-than-expected secondary market," Chow Sai said, noting more sellers appear willing to pay the sellers' stamp duty (SSD) and more appear willing to sell at a net loss. The SSD is imposed on properties purchased after February 10, 2010 and owned for less than four years. In addition, with around 10,000 units of private homes completed in 2013 having limited or no SSD restriction, a potential increase in secondary supply is looming, he said. Another bucket of cold water on the private housing market may come from the public housing resale market, he said. Nomura estimates public housing resale prices may need to fall more than 20 percent for the affordability level to reach a typical market bottom. (Read more: Singapore home sales collapse as cooling measures bite) "A correction of 21.3 percent in HDB (public housing) resale prices will significantly reduce upgraders' demand for the mass-market private housing market and could precipitate a faster price decline," he said. The market is already showing signs of stress. In December, developers' sales of private homes fell more than 80 percent from a year earlier, with only 259 units changing hands, according to government data. In addition, last week private home prices in the city-state registered their first drop in seven quarters in the October-December period, falling 0.8 percent on-quarter. Any government efforts to stem the declines by rolling back cooling measures on the segment may be ineffective, Chow Sai said. (Read more: When will Singapore roll back property curbs?) "A potential surprise in 2014 could be the loosening of some cooling measures, which then proves to be insufficient in addressing the fall in home prices," he said. "Certain policy changes introduced over the last few years with respect to the public housing market and prudent financing are structural in nature (i.e. these policies are not likely to be relaxed)," he said, implying public housing resale values will remain a key negative for the market, even if other measures, such as stamp duties, were relaxed. In June last year, the government introduced rules to ensure a buyer's monthly payments do not exceed 60 percent of income, a move designed to ensure buyers are not caught out by a spike in interest rates. Play Video Will Asia see cooling property prices in 2014? Donald Han, Managing Director at Chesterton Singapore, expects Singapore and Hong Kong to see declining property prices next year as interest rates rise. (Read more: Singapore's real-estate trusts fall out of favor) But despite the struggles at the lower end of the market, prime luxury properties appear set to finally catch a break, Nomura said. "The prime luxury segment is likely to benefit the most from any policy relaxation," the note said. "At the very least, this segment should be the least affected by the potential weaker-than-expected HDB resale/upgraders' market." In addition, the luxury segment already appears to be seeing some pickup, with 47 units of non-landed homes priced over 5 million Singapore dollars, or around $3.9 million, changed hands in the primary market, the largest number since higher stamp duties were introduced in January 2013.
basspundit Posted January 16, 2014 Author Posted January 16, 2014 That's what I've noticed, seems that a lot of modern economy is based on confidence, and none of the the financial institutions would ever say anything that would shake the faith of the masses even in face of overwhelming evidence, denying it to the grave it seems. From the rebuttal statement, can see ppl will always be in denial until the bubble pops... ;D
pschia Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 Does the recent fire at the uber-expensive Marina Bay Suites lend support to Colombo's claim? In their reporting of the incident, the press has inevidently revealed that only 20 of the 221 units have physical residents. Does that mean that the rest of the 203 units sold have phantom owners waiting to 'flip' their investment? The units in this building cost some $3000 psf. One resident interviewed said she is now seriously considering moving out and selling her unit at a loss for $5 million (jokingly or otherwise) to the reporter if he is interested. That fire has severely diminished the market value of the already unsaleable apartments there and I pity those investors who had actually taken up bank loans to finance their gamble. The bubble might have just collapsed for them as far as they are concerned.
Peter Seow Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 hdb prices are a big bubbbbbbble haven anybody realised that the the prices have doubled up you ask yourself a simple has your salary doubled? landed up three times.... who owns hdb... PR, foreign worker rents them. We are going down in big way as singapore is a middle man you can never bypass USA as produces goods we dont produce anything.
dsj88 Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 HDB is only leasehold. So it does not even belong to you. You are actually renting from the govt. Has anybody thought what will happen when there is say less than 50 years of lease left? In the euphoria, people forget these things and remember the FTs that have no intention of staying here will start to bail out when prices start dropping too much as they want to lock in their profits and return home a rich man.
YANG Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 hdb prices are a big bubbbbbbble haven anybody realised that the the prices have doubled up you ask yourself a simple has your salary doubled? landed up three times.... You sure boh???(I pretty sure my salary cannot tahan...). Engcik KOH Bao Win mentioned that even if ones pay is under 1k, also can tahan 3rm flat wor!!!
c7221624705751 Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/01/13/why-singapores-economy-is-heading-for-an-iceland-style-meltdown/5/ this article is mostly sensational bullshit. this guy has never even been to Singapore. he doesn't even know we have a big oil related industry, and he doesn't know what HDB is. And we (hoping to) becoming the London of the east is a bad thing to him. everything and anything that is prosperous is a bubble to him. any financial service is also a bubble to him. this is the typical armchair critic, just look at the headline charts and use sensational language to get attention.
Peter Seow Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 this article is mostly sensational bullshit. this guy has never even been to Singapore. he doesn't even know we have a big oil related industry, and he doesn't know what HDB is. And we (hoping to) becoming the London of the east is a bad thing to him. everything and anything that is prosperous is a bubble to him. any financial service is also a bubble to him. this is the typical armchair critic, just look at the headline charts and use sensational language to get attention. Article might not be totally true but when happened to all middle mans will happen to singapore. melaka was once a middleman it evntually died. Singapore is nothing but a hub for meet up. Jobs will eventually die out you need to think ahead. the oil and chemical will not last. once freigners and pr leave hdb will be in free fall.
Peter Seow Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 You sure boh???(I pretty sure my salary cannot tahan...). Engcik KOH Bao Win mentioned that even if ones pay is under 1k, also can tahan 3rm flat wor!!! maybe you should check what happened in 1996 to 2003 but this time the economy wont recover
c7221624705751 Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 ... when happened to all middle mans will happen to singapore. ... Jobs will eventually die out ... of course, that is why I totally believe we should not take what we have for granted. we are not first world. everything we have have to be carefully guarded (for example, never ever assume SGD is a strong currency). LHL is trying to make us London of the East, and hopefully can overtake HK. I agree with him. as far as this article is concerned, totally irrelevant, full of mistakes, full of sensational accusations, full of self proclaimed "theories". rubbish. sure attention seeker.
FGreen Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 the oil and chemical will not last. Depends on what horizon you are referring to.. next 10-20 years probably sustainable. Beyond 30 years, how the energy industry will play out, it is anybody's guess... Remember, SG is no longer just a oil hub, it has many world class MNC downstream petrochemical and chemical plants consuming oil and petroleum products into higher value intermediate and speciality chemicals, and the market is supplying entire AP. It is more sophisticated than what the author and most layman is aware of.
Peter Seow Posted January 16, 2014 Posted January 16, 2014 Depends on what horizon you are referring to.. next 10-20 years probably sustainable. Beyond 30 years, how the energy industry will play out, it is anybody's guess... Remember, SG is no longer just a oil hub, it has many world class MNC downstream petrochemical and chemical plants consuming oil and petroleum products into higher value intermediate and speciality chemicals, and the market is supplying entire AP. It is more sophisticated than what the author and most layman is aware of. oh they can easily more to a cheaper countries. dont forget other parts of asia are coming faster and harder. we can import things from any country prices goes first. no reason to let a middleman take a cut
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