Electric Cars Discussion

[Guest rmpfyf]

15 hours ago, proftournesol said:

There are solutions for managing vehicle charging, there aren't solutions for building spare power capacity to handle multiple EVs charging at the same time. My apartment block has 2 floors of car parking including a level of car stackers. How do you charge a car on a stacker?

 

It exists.

[proftournesol]

Teardown of the Bolt, it's estimated that GM are losing US$7400 on each Bolt sold

Quote

UBS tears down a Chevy Bolt — forecasting Tesla Model 3 costs and electric vehicle future

Posted on May 26, 2017 by Charles Morris

Another influential voice has joined the chorus predicting that electric vehicles (EVs) will soon disrupt the global auto industry. A team from financial giant UBS took apart a Chevy Bolt and published an in-depth cost analysis of the new vehicle. However, its report went much further, making some bold predictions about the future of the automotive market.

 

The immediate purpose of the exercise was of course to estimate GM’s cost to build the $37,000 vehicle. UBS said that the Bolt’s electric powertrain is $4,600 cheaper to produce than it previously estimated, “with much cost reduction potential left.” However, GM is still selling the Bolt at a loss. “We estimate that GM loses $7,400 in earnings before interest and tax on every Bolt sold today, mainly due to a lack of scale,” wrote UBS’s analysts.

 

This figure is just a bit less than what other industry observers have estimated. As Elon Musk and others have explained, through the convoluted math of California’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) program, GM earns credits that offset its losses on sales of the Bolt, but has no incentive to sell more than about 30,000 units per year. However, UBS’s findings imply that, if GM could squeeze out some costs and increase the scale of production, it could be earning a profit on the Bolt before long.

 

UBS extrapolated its findings about Bolt production costs to make a portentous prophecy: EVs will prove to be “the most disruptive car category since the Model T Ford.” The company predicts that “total cost of consumer ownership can reach parity with combustion engines from 2018.” EVs will still carry higher sticker prices, but when the savings on fuel and maintenance are considered, they will be cheaper. UBS expects this price parity to be reached first in Europe, where gas prices are higher, and in the US several years later.

 

“This will create an inflexion point for demand,” said the UBS analysts. This is surely the understatement of the year. A UBS survey of 10,000 consumers found that it was the high price of EVs, not fear of the technology, that prevented people from buying. And the ever-growing waiting list for Tesla’s Model 3 indicates that there is plenty of pent-up demand for EVs. Once the price barrier is breached, a tidal wave of disruption could sweep the industry. UBS has raised its forecast for EV sales in 2025 to 14.2 million - 14% of global car sales. It also predicts that automakers will start earning a profit of about 5% on EVs by 2023, equivalent to today’s average profit margin.

 

UBS notes that the effects will be felt in related industries as well. It predicts a boom in battery materials such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths. Growing demand will lead to higher prices, spurring “transformative industry growth.” No, there’s not going to be a catastrophic shortage of lithium. According to UBS, “Only cobalt faces the issue of limited reserves, whereas for the other materials, current production capacity is the only bottleneck.”

 

Good news for mineral producers, bad news for makers of replacement parts. “Our detailed analysis of moving and wearing parts has shown that the highly lucrative spare parts business should shrink by 60% in the end-game of a 100% EV world, which is decades away,” UBS said (without explaining why the transition will take decades).

 

The UBS report moves on to riskier ground, extrapolating its cost analysis of Chevrolet’s apple to an orange, Tesla’s as yet undriven and unbought Model 3. The shakiness of such a metaphorical limb is obvious - the two vehicles differ in their form factors and their target markets, and the two companies couldn’t be more different. Giant GM plans to produce the Bolt in low volume, and it can write off any losses as the cost of satisfying government regulators and buying some green cred. Upstart Tesla, on the other hand, hopes to produce Model 3 in quantities of 500,000 per year for starters, and it has more or less staked its existence on being able to do so.

Above: New spy video of the Tesla Model 3 (Youtube: Northern California Dashcam)

Furthermore, as Electrek points out, most of the Bolt, including the battery cells and all the main powertrain components, comes from Korean supplier LG, whereas Tesla has become wary of relying on suppliers, and has vertically integrated the manufacturing of almost its entire powertrain - even the battery cells are produced by Panasonic at the Gigafactory, under the watchful eye of Big Brother Elon.

 

Be that as it may, UBS is confident that what it learned from the Bolt enables it to predict the profitability of Model 3. “We estimate that Tesla will require an achieved selling price of ~$41k for the upcoming Model 3 to break even. This is ~$6k above the estimated base price of $35k. As Tesla buyers are likely to order well-equipped versions (margins on the options should be ~50%), the required ~$41k threshold is likely to be well exceeded, in our view.”

 

In other words, Model 3 will only be profitable if buyers spring for $6,000 worth of options, but most are likely to do so. Unsurprisingly, Tesla is more optimistic - it has been predicting a 20% gross margin on an average sale price of $42,000. Of course, the unstated assumption is that Tesla will meet its ambitious production goals. The company is counting on economies of scale and improvements in the manufacturing process to bring costs down. If the ramp-up stalls for some reason, predictions about profit margins could be out the window.

===

Sources: CleanTechnica, Electrek, Financial Times, Seeking Alpha

Posted in chevy bolt, Electric Vehicles, GM, Tesla, Tesla Model 3, tesla news, TSLA

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[betty boop]

1 minute ago, proftournesol said:

Teardown of the Bolt, it's estimated that GM are losing US$7400 on each Bolt sold

 

in essence they subsidise but get it back in credits.

 

fiats boss as I posted much earlier in this thread also said the same thing with their fiat 500e they sell there. basically give away a free fiat 500 when ever they sell one of the 500e ... no doubt getting it back in credits as well.

 

and no wonder the makers need some sort of subsidy system here or it really doesnt stack up too well for aussie buyers. 

 

so sounds like the bolt is likely not going to make it here even on a cost basis...they probably dont want happening what happened wiht the volt or the leaf with people not buying them because they were SO expensive and relying on fleets and what not to take up instead for green kudos.

[proftournesol]

This is Tesla's advantage, they'll sell the Model 3 for around the same price point and do it profitably. At the moment GM can't and maybe none of the other manufacturers can either except for maybe Hyundai.

It isn't an issue for GM because they'll make more money selling their small trucks than they'll lose from the Bolt but it'll limit Bolt production and leave most of the big manufacturers several years behind Tesla in drivetrain development

[Briz Vegas]

There were lots of " don't like its looks anymore" comments on a recent model three article with a white release candidate.  I have to say that the white one in the video does look a bit like a duck from the front and maybe even the back with that duck tail. It could be the DB3,  DB for duck billed.

 

Personally I like ducks, although the local ones that live in my neighbourhood have a bit of a go at you as you walk past.  Very protective creatures.  Must be all those duck hunters.  They have ruined human/bird relations.

 

i wonder if they do yellow ones.  Make it a bit more ducky.

[Guest rmpfyf]

6 hours ago, proftournesol said:

It isn't an issue for GM because they'll make more money selling their small trucks than they'll lose from the Bolt but it'll limit Bolt production and leave most of the big manufacturers several years behind Tesla in drivetrain development

 

Sorry Prof, not how it works at all.

 

6 hours ago, al said:

so sounds like the bolt is likely not going to make it here even on a cost basis...they probably dont want happening what happened wiht the volt or the leaf with people not buying them because they were SO expensive and relying on fleets and what not to take up instead for green kudos.

 

Vehicles don't need to be profitable to have a strategic reason to be sold in any market. 

 

If anything it's common with new tech vehicles for this not to be the case - common for generations of a given vehicle.

[proftournesol]

24 minutes ago, rmpfyf said:

 

Sorry Prof, not how it works at all.

 

 

Most commentators have the opinion that the Bolt will only be built in limited numbers and contribute to the GM fleet average allowing it to sell more poorly performing light trucks

[Guest rmpfyf]

3 minutes ago, proftournesol said:

Most commentators have the opinion that the Bolt will only be built in limited numbers and contribute to the GM fleet average allowing it to sell more poorly performing light trucks

 

That's an extremely limited interpretation of what some commentators may think, and further of the rationale behind market demand and regulatory compliance. (Also... GM's light trucks actually perform pretty well insofar as trucks go.)

 

Asides from Indonesian, Russian and Australian markets, all vehicle markets have fleet emission standards. EVs subsidised either in upfront credits (eg USA) or supercredits in fleet averages (eg EU) or some combination of both. This effectively means EV sales can be used to manipulate fleet tailpipe CO2/km data, which reflexively means tailpipe CO2/km standards are used to transition from pure ICE and drive EV uptake... which is a primary reason as to why these standards exist at all.

 

It is not a cradle-to-grave green performance metric - doesn't account for competitive CO2e/km or embedded CO2e, which are also important, and which your Tesla might suck at, f'rinstance. 

 

There are many reasons to keep production numbers relatively low (to 50k) as GM deals with transitioning to EVs in all from supply chain to sales and aftersales. Still.. just because the production line is scaled for 50k/year doesn't mean the architecture is...

[betty boop]

21 minutes ago, proftournesol said:

Most commentators have the opinion that the Bolt will only be built in limited numbers and contribute to the GM fleet average allowing it to sell more poorly performing light trucks

 

when in California... I noticed an astonishing amount of 8L ? dodge ram trucks on the road... for such an environmentally high morals state was kinda odd to see such a large proportion of gas guzzlers !  

 

yep its all about the balance I guess ! hehe

[Guest rmpfyf]

13 minutes ago, al said:

 

when in California... I noticed an astonishing amount of 8L ? dodge ram trucks on the road... for such an environmentally high morals state was kinda odd to see such a large proportion of gas guzzlers !  

 

yep its all about the balance I guess ! hehe

 

It's all about demand.

 

Biggest engine you can get is a 6.4L Cummins diesel in the uber models. Most Rams sold are 3.6L variants. These come with an 8-speed auto box and pretty decent fuel efficiency for what they are. There's a 'high fuel efficiency' option, and believe it or not... a limited production PHEV demonstrator (!) which did some pretty cool things (could work as a ute with a generator onboard... very useful).

[Briz Vegas]

Just looked at a US comparison of Hyundai Ionic vs Model 3.  The ionic was looking ok until i noticed its only $2500 cheaper .

 

With RWD, about 6 seconds to 100, an unconventional interior, double the range ( which helps because charging in SEQ is almost non-existent - you need to get out and back home ) and the Tesla philosophy vs a relatively minor saving, much less inspiring design and a proper hatchback.........its got to be the Tesla.  Think i will wait until Christmas and maybe, just maybe i will make a model 3 reservation.  Yes, its way more than i should spend on a car, but .......   

[proftournesol]

The Model 3 isn't a hatchback BTW

[betty boop]

read that bmw has dumped the idea of the i5. but its just "reports online" so take with mount everest of salt till actually any confirmation,

 

http://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/bmw-i5-electric-car-axed-reports-20170526-gwdork.html

[Guest rmpfyf]

Got to check out a 2nd-gen Volt on the weekend (among a few other EV/PHEV)... quite impressive. 

[Briz Vegas]

Not a RHD Volt obviously as they are not making any.

 

The 3 is not a hatchback so they can do the glass roof but the roof isn't standard anyway.  If you look at the back you can see the rear window waistline s high to allow for a bigger boot opening. The back end is the biggest weakness of the 3.

 

On the Zoe front I noticed that the car is about $52 grand AU in Spain. So much for being affordable.

 

It reinforces the model 3 value proposition, but at the same time it's bad because the Zoe was supposed to be similar to a top line Cleo gas model, assuming it may eventually come here.

 

You will still pay more for the 3 but you get more, except the hatch.

[eman]

I'm all for a 3 (forget $$ for the moment) but I need a hatch with foldy seats to replace my 5metre long wagon 'big car for a big country'.   When I buy something out here at the nearest town it's either move it yourself or pay $50 for a truck to come; which doesn't make sense for 2 sticks.

 

The blunt front doesn't appeal to me either but it's just because we're all used to them needing a big hole there for cooling the inefficiently hot ICE engines.  Maybe just paint some of the snub nose black !

[proftournesol]

1 hour ago, eman said:

I'm all for a 3 (forget $$ for the moment) but I need a hatch with foldy seats to replace my 5metre long wagon 'big car for a big country'.   When I buy something out here at the nearest town it's either move it yourself or pay $50 for a truck to come; which doesn't make sense for 2 sticks.

 

The blunt front doesn't appeal to me either but it's just because we're all used to them needing a big hole there for cooling the inefficiently hot ICE engines.  Maybe just paint some of the snub nose black !

There'll be plenty of second hand Model S' available for the price of a higher spec Model 3, they'll have a hatch and also lifetime free Supercharging

[betty boop]

5 minutes ago, proftournesol said:

There'll be plenty of second hand Model S' available for the price of a higher spec Model 3, they'll have a hatch and also lifetime free Supercharging

 

i think man said likely buy 2md and anyways. 

 

there is also the mitsubishi outlander phev if thats his thing. limited electric range but plugs in and does have fuel/gas backup.

[Guest rmpfyf]

2 hours ago, Briz Vegas said:

Not a RHD Volt obviously as they are not making any.

 

Just back in AU today, so no, not AU. It's really quite well done. Got to see a lot of new talent in the space

 

2 hours ago, Briz Vegas said:

On the Zoe front I noticed that the car is about $52 grand AU in Spain. So much for being affordable.

 

That's not how you'd buy it.

 

2 hours ago, Briz Vegas said:

It reinforces the model 3 value proposition, but at the same time it's bad because the Zoe was supposed to be similar to a top line Cleo gas model, assuming it may eventually come here.

 

No, it wasn't meant to cost what the Clio does - it's not even intended to be bought the same way (of course you can, but that's not the point).

 

1 hour ago, eman said:

The blunt front doesn't appeal to me either but it's just because we're all used to them needing a big hole there for cooling the inefficiently hot ICE engines.  Maybe just paint some of the snub nose black !

 

Whilst the new S fascia is very pretty IMHO, the 3 isn't nearly as pleasing. 

 

52 minutes ago, proftournesol said:

There'll be plenty of second hand Model S' available for the price of a higher spec Model 3, they'll have a hatch and also lifetime free Supercharging

 

Tesla will keep the S as a leading product. 

 

Whilst there's a few 60's floating around at ~$70-80k, they're early builds... the later stuff got a lot better. I'd love it if the Model S dropped in price s/h - though I've got a feeling 3 will help S hold value quite well.

 

47 minutes ago, al said:

there is also the mitsubishi outlander phev if thats his thing. limited electric range but plugs in and does have fuel/gas backup.

 

Depends on range - if you're over ~35km then fuel consumption on the Outlander PHEV would rather you have a diesel.

 

However - did you read AGL's staff offer? Been getting some press - you can lease an Outlander PHEV, AGL takes care of charging infrastructure and energy at a flat rate. Had some pretty good takeup! They'll go public with it soon - betting they'll release Zoe 2 at some point.

[Guest rmpfyf]

Someone might get a deal tomorrow. Going to be interesting to see what this goes for.

 

https://www.pickles.com.au/cars/item/-/details/CP-11-15--Built-04-15--BMW--i3--I01-60Ah--Hatchback--4-Seats--5-Doors/980315067

[eman]

3 hours ago, proftournesol said:

There'll be plenty of second hand Model S' available for the price of a higher spec Model 3, they'll have a hatch and also lifetime free Supercharging

Nice idea but anything a bit different will get the wrong 'attention' in the carpark by the B'stard Bega Bogans.  The 3 looks much more 'generic'.  However much I like the look of nice things I've learned about parking and walking away.  Even my decent big bus '02 Commo wagon gets a gouge rammed into it.   I sold my '55 handbuilt hotrod cos I couldn't leave it anywhere.

I don't know where I'm going to get a Supercharger out here.

Surely the S is so wide everyone out here with their twin cab utes would smash it whenever they opened their doors.  Farmwits, bogans and drongoes.

[Briz Vegas]

You paint such a depressing picture of Bega.  I always used to think of cheese. Now Bega equals a bogan with a cheeseburger or an unpleasant cheesy grin "0rrrr, sorry maaate, didn't see ya fancy car"

 

One of the Australian car web sites is claiming that the Zoe has government approval for compliance and sale in Australia.  What could that mean i wonder.  Could it turn up before Christmas? Would it beat the new Nissan Leaf (September launch in Japan) to Australia? Would a real world 320km Leaf make more sense than a real world 260km Zoe in South East Queensland, particularly for a car that does weekend and week night duty only?  The car would also double as a battery for solar panels in my case. I know the Leaf can be used in this way.  From what i understand the price of car lion batteries is far more cost effect than stationary batteries at the moment. Pity they charge double for the rest of the car, probably to recover the R&D for a low volume product.

 

Meanwhile, back in Bega - Put some fluffy pink dice and a fake heart shaped exhaust tip on a Zoe and the bogans will think you are a sheila or whatever the current term is in agricultural circles. Park next to a Yaris and the car would be invisible.

 

 

Edited May 30, 2017 by Briz Vegas

[proftournesol]

3 minutes ago, Briz Vegas said:

 

Meanwhile, back in Bega - Put some fluffy pink dice and a fake heart shaped exhaust tip on a Zoe and the bogans will think you are a sheila or whatever the current term is in agricultural circles. Park next to a Yaris and the car would be invisible.

 

 

Just play Barnsie the bogan Pope through the car stereo

[Guest rmpfyf]

1 hour ago, Briz Vegas said:

One of the Australian car web sites is claiming that the Zoe has government approval for compliance and sale in Australia.  What could that mean i wonder.  Could it turn up before Christmas? Would it beat the new Nissan Leaf (September launch in Japan) to Australia? Would a real world 320km Leaf make more sense than a real world 260km Zoe in South East Queensland, particularly for a car that does weekend and week night duty only?  The car would also double as a battery for solar panels in my case. I know the Leaf can be used in this way.  From what i understand the price of car lion batteries is far more cost effect than stationary batteries at the moment. Pity they charge double for the rest of the car, probably to recover the R&D for a low volume product.

 

That's the rumour - it's been homologated and someone's about to sell it. Could even be AGL! Who knows.

 

Sense is relative - what works for you, works for you. 

 

The $/kWh might be cheaper but there are other costs for stationary storage, and also the @/kWh doesn't scale down in size linearly.

 

Compared to ~$100 in parts for a fuel tank it's an expensive fuel tank. The rest of the car is cheaper.

 

Meanwhile in Bega I'd want a fuel cell Hilux, or a prodution version of this...

[Briz Vegas]

The Seinfeld soup guy says no soup for you.  Renault say the market isn't right.

 

Oh well, there are other players that think differently.  To bd fair, even regular super minis are struggling in the dual cab Aussie showrooms across the country.